Vallecito Lake forecast
Blended from several models, corrected to the lakeside station, and graded against it every day.
Upper 50s, cooling to the low 50s by Fri. Afternoon storm chances Sat–Mon.
This morning’s read
Tuesday, November 3 · posted 5:00 AM MT
11/03/26 5:47am: Morning, its Tuesday. The frost on the truck bed was thick enough to scrape this morning.
Before I get into the day ahead, I need to own yesterday. I called 0.0-0.1" for Bayfield and up the Pine and we got 0.3" when a band of showers set up over the valley Monday afternoon that I didnt have in the forecast.
Today's straightforward. Dry for the bus run across all elevations, and I'd expect the 501 and the 240 to stay dry through the morning. Durango and Bayfield should see partly cloudy skies with temps reaching the low 50s this afternoon. Up the Pine and around Vallecito, mid-to-upper 40s under the same setup. The high Weminuche stays below freezing all day but dry.
Wednesday brings a weak system through. The GFS keeps us completely dry while the ICON shows up to 0.09" of liquid for Vallecito. The Euro and GEM split the difference with trace amounts. If we get anything Wednesday afternoon it'll be light showers in town and Bayfield, maybe a brief mix up the Pine, and a couple inches at most above 10,500'. Take that with a big grain of salt (the models cant agree on whether this thing has any moisture for us at all). Worst case for travel would be Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, but even then I'd expect the 501 and the 240 to handle fine and the passes to stay mostly wet rather than snow-packed.
Coal Bank could pick up a couple inches at most if this comes together, while Molas should stay mostly wet with rain at pass level. Red Mountain could pick up a couple inches at most. Wolf Creek should stay dry through Wednesday. Current closures and chain law: https://www.cotrip.org/
The SNOTEL at Vallecito is sitting at 1.8" of SWE, eighteen times the median for early November. Basin-wide the seven stations are running well above normal, ranging from about one-and-a-half times median at Upper San Juan to over four times at Red Mountain Pass. The reservoir's at 94% of full pool.
Thursday clears out and we get a quiet stretch through the weekend.
Did your end of the county see that Monday afternoon band or did it miss you too?
Up the Pine Weather. A forecast, not road status. Check COtrip before you drive, and the National Weather Service for warnings.
Hour by hour
Drag across the ridge — the sky is tonight and tomorrow, the mountain is the temperature.
- Now, Sat, Oct 31, 42 degrees, Mostly Cloudy, 10 percent chance of rain
- 11 PM, Sat, Oct 31, 43 degrees, Mostly Cloudy, 14 percent chance of rain
- 12 AM, Sun, Nov 1, 41 degrees, Slight Chance Rain Showers, 26 percent chance of rain
- 1 AM, Sun, Nov 1, 41 degrees, Rain Showers Likely, 49 percent chance of rain
- 2 AM, Sun, Nov 1, 41 degrees, Rain Showers, 73 percent chance of rain
- 3 AM, Sun, Nov 1, 41 degrees, Rain Showers, 91 percent chance of rain
- 4 AM, Sun, Nov 1, 40 degrees, Rain Showers, 95 percent chance of rain
- 5 AM, Sun, Nov 1, 40 degrees, Rain Showers, 99 percent chance of rain
- 6 AM, Sun, Nov 1, 39 degrees, Rain Showers, 99 percent chance of rain
- 7 AM, Sun, Nov 1, 39 degrees, Rain Showers, 99 percent chance of rain
- 8 AM, Sun, Nov 1, 40 degrees, Showers And Thunderstorms, 99 percent chance of rain
- 9 AM, Sun, Nov 1, 40 degrees, Showers And Thunderstorms, 98 percent chance of rain
- 10 AM, Sun, Nov 1, 42 degrees, Showers And Thunderstorms, 98 percent chance of rain
- 11 AM, Sun, Nov 1, 42 degrees, Showers And Thunderstorms, 99 percent chance of rain
- 12 PM, Sun, Nov 1, 42 degrees, Showers And Thunderstorms, 99 percent chance of rain
- 1 PM, Sun, Nov 1, 43 degrees, Showers And Thunderstorms, 99 percent chance of rain
- 2 PM, Sun, Nov 1, 44 degrees, Showers And Thunderstorms, 100 percent chance of rain
- 3 PM, Sun, Nov 1, 44 degrees, Showers And Thunderstorms, 100 percent chance of rain
- 4 PM, Sun, Nov 1, 44 degrees, Showers And Thunderstorms, 100 percent chance of rain
- 5 PM, Sun, Nov 1, 43 degrees, Showers And Thunderstorms, 99 percent chance of rain
- 6 PM, Sun, Nov 1, 46 degrees, Showers And Thunderstorms, 98 percent chance of rain
- 7 PM, Sun, Nov 1, 45 degrees, Showers And Thunderstorms, 97 percent chance of rain
- 8 PM, Sun, Nov 1, 45 degrees, Showers And Thunderstorms, 98 percent chance of rain
- 9 PM, Sun, Nov 1, 45 degrees, Showers And Thunderstorms, 96 percent chance of rain
See how much the models disagree — drag through the next 48 hours
The bold line is the corrected blend; the shaded band is how far the models disagree. Drag across it — or focus it and use .
Drag or use · the band is model spread, the line is the corrected blend.
Next seven days
Bars share one temperature scale, so you can read the week at a glance. Tap any day for the model spread, the correction, and the record.
SatOct 31Rain57°34°99%
SunNov 1Showers · 3.7 in52°35°100%
MonNov 2Snow · 0.3 in52°28°77%
TueNov 3Sunny54°26°1%
WedNov 4Snow53°26°22%
ThuNov 5Sunny53°26°10%
FriNov 6Snow53°27°17%
Precipitation radar
The latest radar frame over the San Juans (RainViewer). Loads when you scroll here to keep the page light.
Radar RainViewer · base map CARTO/OpenStreetMap · data NOAA/NWS.
Lake vs. the high country
The lake sits at about 7,665 ft; Big Bear Park (station BBRC2) is up at 10,341 ft, ≈2,700 ft higher toward the Weminuche. The difference between them is the gradient that flat forecasts miss.
Why it differs from your phone
Most apps read one model and smooth the terrain flat. We pull several — NWS, GFS, ECMWF, ICON — pin them to the lake's real elevation, and blend them, then correct toward the marina's lakeside station. That's why it can disagree with your phone.
Sources: NWS · GFS · ECMWF · ICON. Forecast updated Oct 31, 10:31 PM · Ground truth: the lakeside marina station. See how we verify.